Residual flood risks are generally referred to here as those risks that exist after implementing a particular risk reduction measure. For example, after placing an embankment what are the chances and the potential consequences if that embankment would fail? Should those risks be more emphasized in flood management policy? What if managing those risks requires actors that traditionally have no relation at all with flood management?
BASIC PLANNING AND RISK
Wed, 09/08/2010 - 22:11 — GS RadjouIn principle, you want to go, to make something (buy a piece of bread, drive the kids to school), you watch if you have the resources to make it (have you enough money, are kids properly dresses and will you be on time to drive them to the front gate of the school). This means you have assessed all your reqirement needs ie the cost of the baguette/stick/bread, the time/duration trip from your car park to the school).
In case of an event that can occur, you need to think about alternative routes/means. For example, in the case of Eyjafjallajokull eruption, would people stay (last eruption was 1821). Nobody knows about the volcano eruption until it had happened and they saw it with the mega flood-8 to 10 meters coming from the melt snow ice.
Or perhaps "no", they would find alternatives, make some kind of preparadness in case they needed to dun away from the volcano and the flood.
In fact, the municipality authorities gave orders to evacuate nearby the volcano and get sheltered with Red cross.
These helps can also come from neighbours or local organization (Red crescent, Medecin Sans Fontiere...If you are a business person, you may be frightened to live your propeties, there is a risk of looting, etc.
Then you can look for help outside, assess how much it will cost and go for it according yo your means...
BIOENGINEERING THAT MAKES THE DIFFERENCE
Tue, 09/07/2010 - 20:29 — GS Radjouhttp://www.e-senss.com
http://www.salixoec.com
(from erosion control)
These are good link to stabilize river bed and embankements with respect to the environment.
Very sustainable indeed. Really usefull for those who are found of waterscape (and also, gardening)
CHRISTCHURCH EARTHQUAKE AND TSUNAMY RISK 09/04/2010
Sun, 09/05/2010 - 21:53 — GS RadjouPACIFIC TSUNAMY WATCH HAS CONFIRMED THE RISK ZERO FOR TSUNAMIES AFTER SATURDAY 09/04/2010 EARLY MORNING STROKE 30 MILES WEST OF CHRISTCHURCH WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 7.2 ON RICHTER SCALE. THERE HAS BEEN NO DEAD WITH FEW HOUSES DESTROYED AND INJURED CITIZEN OF THE LITTLE COMMUNITY OF CHRISTCHURCH. PEOPLE WERE STARTED LOOTING SOME SHOP WINDOWS IN TOWN.......I WISH THEM TO RECOVER QUICKLY FROM THE NATURAL HAZARD.
TSUNAMY PACIFIC WARNING SYSTEM ANNOUNCED LATER THERE WAS NO TSUNAMY RISK FOLLOWING THE POWERFULL EARTHQUAKE.
Earthquake and risk
Sat, 09/04/2010 - 12:37 — GS RadjouGeo-net website/Le Monde french news paper title announcement this morning 60km west of Christchurch an earthquake magnitude 4.2 on Richter Scale.
Earthquake risk normally is about impacts on livelyhoods and people properties. casualties can be high according to the magnitude of the phenomenum.
A country like Haity begining of the year was striken by one. 7.2 RS magitude, it tells with the strength how disastrous for the natural hazard can be for the economies (it is not just about shaking leaves from trees)
Hopefully, there is no tsunamy or flood that go often with the submarine earthquake.
Crisis group and operation teams should be ready to help if local government is unable to succeed alone.
More news later (and confirmation of the one first...)
SAND BAG AND UNCERTAINTY
Sat, 09/04/2010 - 10:55 — GS Radjouhttp://www.mobiler-hochwasserschutz.org/?gclid=CN_M6Muv7aMCFcH-2
I put this link (given by US Erosion control)
Issue with sand bags: it is not sustainable, it takes time to load sand by river embankement to make a wall against flood, and as much time if not more to remove when the flood withdraw.
The US had came with new technologies after the Hurricane in Louisiana to protect us against disastrous impacts caused flood. These technologies are instant walls like screens or barriers to isolate the house or a community village. Some companies have the ideas to fight flood with flood itself. Inflating buoys with the flood water itself. It looks fine and it is working. Pumping water into a bag as it rises and encapsulating it in insuflating bags allows the water to be contained in the physical limits of the buoy membranes themselves.
This morning, I found in the US erosion control a very nice article from a German firm that contains the same idea, but this time with bag you would find on building sites. Well building sites in modern cities are full of ideas for emerging countries at risk of flood regularly, and for an affordable price. I recommend you to open the link on the top line of this window or go to the link...(also see my WAER project access to drinking water. The portofolio contains the ingredients to supply frash water in inundated regions (single project). Drinking water for everybody means that the civilians are not drowning (Portofolio)
NOTOTHEIOIDES
Fri, 09/03/2010 - 21:35 — GS RadjouThis fish may help to understand a bit more about adaption to climate change maybe! Anyway, I found interesting to know that this rare fish specie (they are 14 of the same family) that managed to adapt to seawater temperature dscrease.
When South America and Australia separated from Antartica, it created a huge seawater ring/wall of freezing water around Antartica that many fish species died (fish is cold blood animal)- bones have been found on Seymour islands.
From this time an exotic or temperate fish travelling from the various Oceans (Atlantic, Pacific, Indian) and Austral sea could make the trip (with sea currents) up to 50 degree celsius of south latitude.
Cold blood animal like fish-also snakes cannot control their body temperature and their blood starts to freeze or heat up if there environment is too cold or too warm.
It is said that in Antarctica, seawater under the banquise is - 2.0 degree celsius.
It is too cold for almost all fish species to live there. Except for nototheioides fish that developped an antifreeze for its blood, the molecule is like a sugar (dissacharide) that helps to keep the blood plasma warmer.
So freezing temperature is lower - 2.2 DEGREE C.
CIVIL SOCIETY ACCOUNTABILITY , RISK AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMEN
Thu, 09/02/2010 - 20:13 — GS RadjouI have put a link related to this subject within the Commonwealth world.http://www.commonwealthfoundation.com/Areasofwork/Governance/Civilsocietyaccountabilityonlinediscussion.
Well myself, I am a bit puzzled because I do not know where we ar going on. I am an action man as long as can watch back my past and ready for actions for the next future.
However, the more I see the future of sustainability the more I think thing may change for better if we are more transparent and accountable.
Buzzword isn't? As the definition may not be the same for everybody and it may take some time for us to accept that progress are slow to come! Maybe? (as the article suggested about country like Ethiopia, Uganda and Kenya).
Still, I believe, all of us more or or less slowly are embracing a world of sustainability with the manufacture model slowly or later again.
I believe that because of the resource scarcity and I suppose now progress is destroying more than building our natural environment if we do not gear up faster(Example of Ethiopia building the biggest dam in the world in the Omo Valley (one of oldest place of human kind where we have found Lucy bones).
I mean, we can come close to a common agreement witht the transparency and accountability to assess speed of changes and which country should contribute more to the sustainability and in which fields may not be easy.
To take another example to illustrate the author text. Chad, in centre of Africa found much more convenient to use is oil revenues now -than later- in respect of the Sustainable development principle (conservation of resource for present and future generation). Where and how do you put the balance right between present and future can be hard work and choices. Perhaps, there may be some compromises and exceptions for least developped countries?
CRISIS MANAGEMENT
Wed, 09/01/2010 - 21:55 — GS RadjouMy reflexion is lost between the quality of answers to people need in disaster, what they want they want, what we want or what wecan offer and they can accept with a certain level of satisfaction.From ancient time, there was pro and con for aids (as today, if you have read surveys on appeals for Pakistan). One fact is these disasters look like never ending from one year to another and we don't know how many of these crisis that do not get media attention.
Data are missing, we use imperfect modelling...still to reduce these crisis, we still need more innovation new thinking, willing , motivation to make a better place to live in. Easy to say and difficult to materialize.
+Population growth and birth rate reduction is one way to make the sustainability development works, less consumption means less environmental destruction. Crazy idea, isn't?
+Educating people our fast can one teach to take about the environment. Programs change all the time, today there are lots of talk about education, still I believe quality of education has been downgraded compared to our ancestors to assimilate volume of knowledge that could be useless. Plenty of education hardwares and softwares but if you do not have the skill
+regulations and incentives like subsidies or grants or taxes there are also critics, there are not perfect (I don' t give examples, they are too many). I think if we have to survey law makers, we may discover we spent more monies to make laws than their goal oriented returns
+other approaches: difficult to assess, still humankind cannot stand still but need to act for others under the umbrella of eternity.
Hopeffully better days will return for these zone at risk if everybody give a hand, we may got it right: global warming, flood, food crisis...WITHOUT LOOSING SOULS.
ANTAGONIST COUPLES AND RISK
Tue, 08/31/2010 - 21:36 — GS RadjouIt is very relevant of the flood topic, the number of couples to select a strategy that can be clear/unclear, for example:
-weather-hydrology
-short term- longterm view
-forecast-nowcast
-water hazard-other disaster (see Pareto analysis)
-rapid response-slow response (unsure of the occurence of events)
-people-properties (for the casualties...)
-drinking water-other needs (health, engineering...policy)
-flood farming-conventional farming (fertilisers )
-small flood/crisis-big flood/crisis (with media attention)
-natural disaster with war-crisis with no war
-small number of people affected- great number...
-preparadness-no preparadness
-international assistance-no international...
-technology-no technology
-sustainable development-oil
-resource management-environmental management
-preservation-conservation
-innovation- old thinking
-mitigation-adaption
-emergency-management
-minimalistic planning but plenty flexibility-more planning with more resources
-water trucking- water droning (new)
...
-etc...
You can make your selection to see what best suit your strategy for inputs, outputs and processes...
LAST EXAMPLE (HOW TO APPLY THE STRATEGY RECIPE): Simulation of my own project WAER project access to water during a flood. During a hurricane, I use drones for humanitarian. World custom organization may ask to use some double usage goods for civilian protection and not for war (you fill a specific form).
The reverse also should be true like military technology or specific user tools being useful for humanitarian actions (Example of 2 OZ POCKET WARER PURIFIER)...
WEATHER RISK AND THE ECONOMY
Mon, 08/30/2010 - 20:53 — GS RadjouWeather outlooks are these organizational-WMO, NOAA, some private firms...) weather deliverables to tell the quality of the atmospherical , hydological elements.
This end of year 2010 Prime Minister Putsine put a ban on export of grains because of the drought (and wood fires) in parts of Russia.
Which countries have suffered most from the disasters. I believe it is Egypt and MENA region, throught the impairement of the virtual water trade.
ACCORDING TO the weather news, this year, eastern Europe has warmer and dry summer, and as consequence this lead to price increase (which is good) for western European farmers (like France...) that saw an increase in their revenue compared to last year (and no strikes or less).
ALL IS LINKED the weather and the economy and the price fixing for goods, so the interest of forecast methods to control output of industries.
Question: why the price of milk for farmers went up?
-answer: weather is bad in some part of the world (a disaster) in another part (selling more wheat to them ) it is an opportunity. Demand for wheat or another food for cattles-cows- increases, to refrain the demand sale prices have increased to cover cost excess in the new margin.
Note: could we produce more and keep the price low. Not worth it after a crisis comes the recovery. Here we are. This virtual mechanism in fixing the price is like the invisible hand of ADAM SMITH inside the efficient fontiere.
Similarly, in flood prone regions , people would come out from the disaster in better shapes with all the sediments that have loaded and fertlized their lands...
FORECAST SECURITY
Sun, 08/29/2010 - 20:38 — GS RadjouHow serious is a forecast? Take for instance delays caused by prediction date for delivery of an aircraft. There an insurance policy to cover these risks but what about disaster forecast. Who is in charge , who is responsible...Perhaps nobody as disaster is not predictable (old saying) or predictable (UN new saying). After all communities and businesses spend lots of dollars in investment to ensure we get it right.
The matrix organisation between security forecast organizer and humanitarian organization is helping to move allocated resources from strongest points in the matrix network to the strongest points....
Tube wells
Sat, 08/28/2010 - 11:21 — GS RadjouLook excellent as secondary source of water. You get fresh water into your hand from the undergroung.
Spain: plenty of well tubes (particularly in Barcelona)-so need to buy water during your holidays.
Paris very few ones. Still, the one at gare de Lyon is a delight. While in some parts pof the world people fight to get drinking water. This pump is an archaic one but functional and with good quality water.
Hope only, this water does not become contaminated with human activities by the time of crisis. and also, these pills.
Sweden,and Stockholm the city of water. Suprisingly, I have not seen any tube wells (except in the country side in some parts by some lakes.)
These tubes need to be rediscovered and protected.
SLIDESHARE FOR WATERSCAPE
Thu, 08/26/2010 - 13:23 — GS RadjouThanks for downloads my slide for the waterscape on www.slideshare/gs radjou, Business Innovation research development. this window is still under construction. there are more innovations and new thinking to come and new changes, also.
INDICATORS AND ASSESSMENT
Tue, 08/24/2010 - 22:44 — GS RadjouOften stakeholders may not agree on assessment it is because it is not same viewpoint like an indicator is different. People would argue stakeholders do not have the same views on how vaccines are needed to stop a disease, how many litres of drinking water, how many tents,...AND SO ON.
I think indicators make all the difference who you are representing. You may allocate the scarced resources, and it will be just a baseline as I AM SURE it would change later for more. Best policy would be to plan a certain percentage of resource reserve to cover for th risks. For example when planning the Heathrow airport (terminal 5), project managers in charge had underestimate the cost of the new building and they had to change the baseline budget .
Disaster managements are special case because some hazard are not obvious. If it is an earthquake for instance, WMO satellite would be a precious tool to assess aids needed in the aftermather and post recovery operation.
It become unclear when the disaster is not very well defined in space and time like a flood or cholera, particularly also, when is added man made disasrers (war...), helping people moves from a technical aspect of responding to people needs to a cahotic industry of removing the confusion between help and politics, and off course you can't.I think it is why some humanitarian assistance look unclear and you don't know how to mitigate.
There is also, the case that debates in the news between experts and bosses of organizations, again indicators may not be the same. For instance, in the flood that occurred in Pakistan head of UN was call Mr more (more aids), while some disaster expert like former boss of MSF(Medecin Sans Frontière) is Mr less (aids).
Truly their baseline for ressource allocation was different. UN head was thinking the aids not only on a short time, the crisis itself but also, a bit longer during and in the recovery operation while the expert view was narrow and framed on vaccines and immunizations.
The only solution as Dr E F Schumacher has advocated (and also one forefather of decentralization of production units is the long-term sustainability.
Also, I AM CERTAIN with all these indicators in mind that help to produce forecast help to produce lean with short lead time thus reduce gaps between various disaster responses and their contexts and customize people needs. For example World bank said lessons learned in Tsunami 26 Dec 2004 in SE Asia helped the relief in Haity.
My viewpoint all is good and it is what multinational like World Co makes . They have a lean, no waste and short lead time production because the company has a store, Obermeyer is its name and the forecast (OBERMEYER forecast ) is a perfect store for mean average of supply and demand in its worldwide branches in Africa, Asia,...from the Obermeyer forecast, the company adjusts for their branches abroad with the PLAN DO CHECK ACT SYSTEM....wi
FLOOD RISK AND RESPONSIVENESS OF OPERATION MANAGEMENT
Sat, 08/21/2010 - 23:38 — GS RadjouRare are cases when a city has been properly evacuated (ILEA Dutch waterscape) and when the emergency evacuation turned out to be perfect, it was because the floodwaters were so to rise AND people have time to prepare.
So, my conclusion is clear, there 2 COMPETING energy processes side by side and unmatched, one the flood event occurence and impacts and the rescue package from early detection and alerts to post recovery operation. These 2 PROCESSES (DISASTER issue settings AND RESCUER solving systems) cannot meet. For instance, grievances are on forecasts, lead-times, resource allocations,..., gaps, delaies , etc.
I believe these risks are difficult to reduce totally.
In principle, stakeholders are making their best to help. There may be cases where assessment would be over valued (maybe) and excess of inventories would (call it diverted), better than undervalued (perhaps, it is one point of difference with business of supply and demand, where price is fixing the value of goods and services, so you as business managers you want the right inventory of resources at the right time, the right place , with the right products), this distinction I BELIEVE makeS EMERGENCY, DISASTER MANAGERS AND PLANNERS OR RECUERS ACKWARDER in making, there jobs (also, they are the policies of heads of organizations that are representing team of teams.
To show the complexity and the opportunity of the situation, I like to take 1 or 2 MODELS borrowed from recruiting (human resources) and efficient frontier (finance, economy or supply chains)
1- Recruiting? I believe We all know today that finding the right candidate for a job is like speed dating with your employer (I believe also, so would be when WMO or flood organizations or humanitarians like Red Cross or IFRC, they need to be fast in their appeals, collect the needeed and appropriate resources to help.
Normally, assistance in the fastest way comes from yiur neighbours locally (similarly, when you are looking for a job, your chance to get recruited in a local store or by friends are better than an international job or help. In the case of the flood in Pakistan, it is normal than the first to help would be Red Crescent and others. In case of debordement, the flood prone region and the country concerned may call for external international assistance , but firstly the people themselves should find their answer. Similarly, like looking for a candidate, if the employer cannot find him/her in the locality, the country, he/she will look at international level.
What makes the adequation/match between the candidate and the job is these 2 Processes side by side, one is the candidate work search, the other is the employer job offer and this need to be matched
Who is making the meeting, normally WMO on behalf of humanitarians, NGOS, individuals, households, governements. Like a jobcentre organizing these speed datings with forums, internet search engines (like Monster,...) WMO makes the same thing with its Management Information System (MIS), including the web, this in order to meet demands of users. I believe, it can be sometime difficult as weather threats are growing like, populations -and also, various other risks cited in previous windows of the help desk- technologies is to be updated, more assets are needed for better coverage or forecast, also, in some parts of the world one would get the weather news through letters, postcards, newspapers, mobile phone , internet, web 2.0...All these channels maybe more or less developped to raise a good quality alarm before the disaster predicted arrival time....
MASLOW PYRAMID OF NEEDS
Fri, 08/20/2010 - 21:49 — GS RadjouFew years ago, I was raising fund for a charity (www.itdg.org). I was in Pakistan. Pakistan is a beautiful country between the sea (Indian Ocean, south), Himalaya mountains (7000-8000 meters , north and bordering with China- if you travel one day through the Kunjerab pass 5000 Meters to enter China or Pakistan, wear very warm cloth like cashmire because the place is very windy and very cold. Just expect to see a small house, the police immigration office. You may queue there like in a ED OR TESCO or LIDL supermarket. then here you are on the roof of the world ready to go to TIBET or XINJAN or BEIJING. The other way opposite is the dirty track -they call it THE KARAKORAM highway, it is on all asian maps, beware these highways are not comparable with US highways, or la route du MIDI in Fance, when you leave Paris to go to the sea mediteranean one. The highway is a stone road following the river bed-like in northern KENYA If you are not well seated on your vehicle/bike you may injured your testicules and get pains and urinate blood due to the inflamation -Until you reach Islamabad- then from Islamabad, an administrative city-like Sao Paolo, but very busy with crowded buses, scooters, people in the warm streets) . Then, you can imagine yourself travelling by all means with the asian standards (car, train, bicycle,...) to KARACHI (by the sea).
Noneless to say the country is very contrasted between the Himalaya and the sea, there is an impressive slope. You could make the trip by bike in a few without effort-pedalling. I think this is whatthe rivers are making, during the monsoon, river flows amplify in volumes in the rivers, river discharges inundate th road and with the kinetic energies created by the slope, it has a disastrous impacts on river nearby villagers communities, and the flood velocity carries all these unwanted materials, like stone rubbles, pollutions and water sources are contaminated.
Once, I made a trip through this contrasted region (east is desert and India, also, south west with IRAN. I was in what my charity/NGO called "race against poverty or sponsor me per mile, if I Make 1KM YOU GIVE $1 or €1 AND SO ON. I did not get so far in my effort after few days cycling, I got water/FOOD poisoning with headache, stomach cramps, fever,...I FELT DIZZY and stopped my journey, left the road and just popped into any house where I was offered a kind of bed made with ropes (like sudanese beds). I HAVE RESTED fewhours, then when I found confortable I LEFT THE PAKISTANESE people. Everywhere I WAS GOING IN THE COUNTRY LATER I GET INVITED, found food accomodation and shelters.
In 2005, there was a huge People have raised funds for this cause...In 2010, it is the same scenario...What Maslow tells us about needs is their motivation, during my ascent to the himalaya, I HAD also needs (and there was no flood).
During a flood, what is the motivation of Pakistanese people, MASLOW TELLS IN HIS PYRAMID FROM BOTTOM TO TOP
1-physiological needs, like eating, sleeping
2-security, protecting their families, babies, properties, livelyhood
3-social needs: school, hospital, electricity
4-esteem: a need to feel human, nice to people
5-recognition, facing each others, one can see each others in making great thing to improve social & business lives....
STAKEHOLDERS AND (FLOOD)RISK
Wed, 08/18/2010 - 20:28 — GS RadjouRecently, I got to know Dr Ali Chavoshian online for my call for Tsukuba 27-29 Sept. 2011 for the flood management meeting. Dr Chavoshian is International Flood Initiative (IFI) General Secretary. In his email of presentation of the subject of crisis and risk to consider 3 phases:
- phase a, which is before the occurence of the hazard/risk and the preparadness to response to the threat/uncertinties and plan to reduce the vunerabilities or mitigate
- phase b, executing the risk project management
- phase c, learn lessons of phase a and b and try to make a more efficient intervention next time the disaster is back.
Truly, what he said is great. After Tsunami in south east Asia on 26 Dec. 2004, it is what stakeholders learned (World Bank, ....ETC) AND it helped stakeholders being much more agile in the post recovery phase, for example. Every time lessons learned helped to solve new risk issues and better mitigation. Still, I found sometimes there are limits.After all, floods or water hazards are also good for those stakeholders farming with flood, what could be a disaster for us may not be a disaster for them. How to determine this tipping may not be easy and the dices may not be only cast through the whole technology. Particularly, if there is no early warning system. In this way, some countries are more protected than others. I believe also, the task of stakeholders is to make with, against and for those people at risk of floods...
PERSONAL CONTACT: georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com (for suggestions or comments, if not on line)
COMPLEXITY AND OPPORTUNITY
Tue, 08/17/2010 - 21:35 — GS RadjouKajima anti seismic infrastructure is making building standing earthquake richter scale magnitude 7, 8 AND maybe more...
Kobe in JAPAN, earthquake over 6 (6.2) destroyed city infrastructure , kills OVER 2000 people and made millions homeless...ETC.2 YEARS LATER japan kajima technologies against earthquake was borned. In 2005 AN earthquake even higher richter scale 8 DID NOT even moved a glass vase of flowers from the shelf to the floor, the kajima technology made all building stable so they could stand the earthquakes again and again.
IN THE CASE OF HAITI EARTHQUAKE RS 7.2 no buildings stand the violence of the choc, house stones crushed people in their house. At the same period of the year a same earthquake destroyed few houses and few casualties. ONE HAD EXPLAINED THE DIFFERENCE of impacts in the presence (or the absence) of metallic structures in buildings. Chile buildings were more resilient because of metals and steel. Most houses in HAITI did not follow the urbanism code (like in other countries that are quick to build and there is no...). Now, if I had the choice to rebuild HAITY do I choose wood and modular wood house as raw material and house fabric, as I READ in an official, or do I USE modular metallic (or wood or bamboo) scaffolds as I DECRIBED IN MY WAER PROJECT ACCESS FOR WATER DURING A FLOOD, or do I USE STEEL SHIPPING CONTAINERS FROM A CANADIAN ARCHITECT FOR MODULAR HOUSING IN HAITY....
FLOOD RISK AND SLEEPING MAP IN PAKISTAN
Mon, 08/16/2010 - 20:45 — GS RadjouI have a friend in Paris (France). He his running a computer and mobile phone shop. I talked about the flood and how difficult it is...He told me everything is difficult in this country.
Paris has been built on swamps (nearly 2000 YEARS AGO). Last universal exposition in Paris (1900) the engineer Eiffel has to dry soils under one of the 4 feet of the Eiffel TOWER, so it could stand for everybody to see it in the world. I mean it is not rocket sciences technologies, architectures and engineering do something to improve people condition in Islamabad, SINNd Province, north west , Lahore or Karachi either it is desert, mountains or inundated lands. Look the undergroung, it cheap, it is confortable, and there is water everywhere in Paris but it is flood free. Thanks to good engineers and technological prowesses. All rivers in France are regulated to control flood. For 2 days- saturday 14,08,2010 and sunday 15, 08, 2010- there was medium-strong rain patterns over Paris, also the shy was dark and no sun filled with clouds, but no floods. Thanks to our engineers, the water waste treament, city canals and drainage control. Without the walls and embankements by the SEINE river, perhaps water would have risen dangerously 8 TO 10 METERS and roads, house basement inundated, this would have put panics in Paris, like some street sceneries we see in TVs from Asia, for example now the flood in PAKISTAN. For sure usual trafics would have been disrupted and plan ORSEC in red alert. Last time it happened it was over 100 years ago. Thanks to changing time and modern Paris (and France) if one can sleep safely and warmly.
Still, we did have recently, 50 people dying with Xanthia flood in Vendée, the best part of France for farming products and dairies. Walls and embankements were olds of course, 200 , 300 YEARS OLD EVEN IN SOME PARTS 500 YEARS OLD. So, these human losses are unfortunate and sad but it is neither a disaster to me nor a sign of corruption, monies have not been diverted in politician pockets and French governance is still as good as western democracies (UK, US...). The fact is today we know better about flood interactions on coastal lands . France engineers and stakeholders concerned are reviewing these walls and adapt and upgrade coastal France. ALL WATER WORKS IN FRANCE LAST A CENTURY OR MORE ONE CAN SLEEP PEACEFULLY. Controlling water satisfy people basic necessities of life, this helped to climb the Maslow PYRAMID AND IT IS WHY FRANCE IS AN ATTRACTIVE COUNTRY. I wish the same for Pakistan -I AM IT IS- but Pakistan needs more engineering prowesses for the people to fight god event on the himalaya and flood particularly when the population is growing up in climate change....
PRICING RISK
Sun, 08/15/2010 - 20:06 — GS RadjouVarious wayS to price . Price would be cost and profit for the added values of these goods. Or a fixed price would be determined by the supply and demand of goods at equilibrium of the equation. Too much demand or low supply and price go up and the reverse if supply is bigger than demand (more goods to give away than buyers). Rather looking at the quantity side too much goods would be considered as loss (for the seller/manager) and not enough goods a potential loss of incomes for the salesman. But there others ways to assess value of goods and the stock policy. I WON't COME TO THEM IN THIS WINDOW. I am more interested to fill in gaps between the supply and the demand for products and services. Forecasting supply and demands for goods help.
For instance, in countries currently assisted (like Haity, for example), there is a no risk status as I remember WHO President Dr. Margaret CHAN saying, luckily we were (talking about the fresh water supply) due to the fact that within 4 DAYS after the earthquake, the first drinking water delivery was given to people. This is great as Haity is in a permant status of international aids and it was much easier to divert previous aids or programs (like the previous hurricane one. This extremely interesting, but can this works in other difficult multi-hazardous countries. What about other alternatives, choices....
TECNOLOGICAL FALLS FROM SPACE PROGRAM
Sat, 08/14/2010 - 20:04 — GS RadjouPresident Obama may have disturbed the space program (according to NASA, still there 2 THINGS I have retained from space program technology falls to reduce flood risks eg one is the matrix organization and the use of hybrid organizations like flood fighters similar to firefighters to reduce gaps between emergency planners and disaster managers and 2 I believe it is not enough to upgrade water sanitation systems, instead what we need as quality flood and water people is HACCP for water, a systematic approach in detecting hazards and sources o hazards/uncertainties that can lead to flood risks and apply systematically these concepts from NASA on earth...
DRONE /UAV AND HEALTH AND FLOOD PLAN
Fri, 08/13/2010 - 20:42 — GS RadjouThey may not be fully operational, drone air robot male or hale could be useful for weather and hydrology prediction.
Project WAER access to drinking water targets the water supply through drops of 2 OZ Pocket Water Purifiers in non-stop flights of drones over inundated regions at risk of water poisoning DURING THE DISASTER.
Of course the earlier the better. But, if one cannot extend survival straw from their traditional user segments like army soldiers or tourists on a water scarcity or bad quality water journey, one could use these drops as ultimate resort (particularly when there a flood caused by hurricanes.
I think most countries either developped or emerging as a drone program...I think there should be some uses for humanitarian actions within the real time of flood solving issue and nowcasting. After all, US AirForce has dropped frozen water bags from their aircrafts during world wars in the sahara when advancing troops have their drinking water supplies cut off. Perhaps, with all these bases in the world (naval, sea and air) , there may be a fast rapid response of these water drops whithin minutes, hours and days of the aftermath to reduce water poisoning risk.
Best in the new thinking and innovation would to allow 2 Oz pocket water purifier trade with the development of a tissue of retails or on-line shopping and within a few days before the predicted disaster time the water products could be home with UPU, postal services or UPS/FEDEX . Great! Is not it? Selling price $10 and most US manufacturers garanteed they clear water from water germs (guardia, e-coli,...)...
So, I re wrote some scenarii for flood plain regions. DURING a flood, drone launchers at sea, land bases could....
WATER QUALITY PEOPLE
Thu, 08/12/2010 - 20:26 — GS RadjouSr GS RADJOU NUMBER 01016373 (WEF)
CLIMATE CHANGE RISK AND THE NEW FLOOD URBANISM
Wed, 08/11/2010 - 21:58 — GS RadjouWhat we need in this 21 rst century. It is rising houses, rising villages and rising cities.
Water Aero Emergency Relief has a planning phase, which is scaffolding infrastructure with modular scaffolds to get quick dry feet.
Modular scaffolds need to balance few forces during the flood like:
- sustantation, so it keep the infrastructure in place or at least either scaffods do not sink on soft soil or the building
- stability, most of the time what happen is buildings are crumbling with the speed and flood kinetic energy. Scaffolds need to keep infrastructures fit on their feet
- retention, also so the infrastructure keeps nailed to the floor
Modular scaffolds mettalic or with wood are versatile and could rise a house quickly , if rising houses over flooded region is a new life style...
ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
Tue, 08/10/2010 - 21:33 — GS RadjouWe are all polluters either small or big from green house gases, CH4 releases in the environment, either from cars, to factories, or lookin after a herd in remote places. Waste accumulations is difficult to recycle and create congestions. One to make the resources more sustainable would be through incentives and carbon credits. COP 15 officially, nobody was agreed on these measures to reduce CO2 emissions to an acceptable level for future generations. Until countries agreed within a common agreement -some of them are already bi or multilateral agreement- we need to dissuade people to live in flood prone regions due to the flood risk. Governments could contribute in the market regulation of flood plain land transaction and the added value made by the time of the land is acquired and when he is sold. It could work with incentives like loans to develop your flood farm or disguise taxes would influence people to move away. It is not easy to apply these laws due to the nature of flood farming, which is contributing to earnings during period outside flood. Also, if farming with flood is relevant to the country region, perhaps all should pay -at least those who are fortunate enough to live up-hill. In general terms businesses have a huge impact on the environment and we all are aware of our wastes (case of oil spills at sea is a reminder). So, businesses shuld not pay in a systematic way (this from the plastic bag, to waste 3 R management or to...)
MORE UNCERTAINTIES
Mon, 08/09/2010 - 22:17 — GS RadjouWhere else in the projet life cycle, there may be more riks? Perhaps, the deliverables, communication risks, also stakeholders or workpackages, time constraints and resource allocations. You need to be sure about the project base line and accomodate some kind of flexibility, in case you need to cover the unexpected.
For example, time management and risks. Take for instance the time you go into the stess and frustration of the flood occurence. Is it the same as the time of the early warning alert or the time you feel unconfortable with your water supply or the time delay rescuers come for a relief. Are they on time? Are you ready with your emergency preparadness. And the time for exit from the disaster. All these times need to be well assess in order to reduce the casualty to livelyhoods and properties...
FLOOD MAPPING RISK
Sun, 08/08/2010 - 21:57 — GS RadjouI am not familiar with these flood maps but I know sea maps, river maps and land maps (not very much also about celestial maps and also very specific maps like geologycal maps).
My assumption is maps are tools to communicate with their readers on topics of their interests. An hypothetical fishing map would tell the reader where he can fish -and do a catch eventually.
If you are use to fish in one place where you fancy fishing and you have been living in the region perhaps, you may not need a map. Your daily fishing entitle you to know behavior of the fish during the day the month and followings. Still some days you maybe able to understand why you get more fish than other days and you can adapt. It is a long process of learning to find fish based on your own practice.
Now, if you are not a fisherman, you need help. You will by the fish from someone directly or you will buy a map -which is the proxy, mediation tool or the indirect way to get the fish. Maps in this last case become a real tool of communication and changing your representation of the real world. These maps are more or less pictures of the land where you one to travel i.e more or contrasted with details, more or less exposed due different nature of the landscape. Maps could be as a report of the landscape, or portraying special places in the landscape, this would certainly depends of the scale of the map (for example 1 cm = 100 would gives more details than 1 cm = 1Km. Also you need to align the direction on your map (true north) with the field maps to know your are on the right direction. Also, on the map you could see some symbols like a chuch, village, rivers, so they would indicators that you are not lost in the landscape. I believe all these characteristics of maps (road maps, river maps....) would be found in flood maps to tell where there is a risk of water dangerously going up to make a flood in time and space. Another uncertainty with maps, you need to make them in advance to anticipate your need requirement and planning, it is a kind of graphic prediction with drawnings of feature you could see on the land that is covered by the map (Map for river b). Map need to be reviewed and updated and correctly amended with figures, colours and dates to give meaning for the readers. Other uncertainties, I SOMETIMES I MET WITH GOOD MAPS: either, they say too much so, when you come to the place, there is nothing or they say nothing EG something that is not on the map is found on the ground So, I believe you have to checks maps before planning with several maps and it may not be enough, that at the end you would rely on local knowledge. think about these uncertainties to not to be blocked or in dead ends, always be pessimistic because it would help to plan innovative solution before the journey....
FLOOD RISK IN PAKISTAN
Fri, 08/06/2010 - 13:13 — GS RadjouA link if you would like to help.
http://www.wfp.org/pakistan
FLOOD RISK ASSESMENT AND PROJECT WAER
Thu, 08/05/2010 - 21:41 — GS RadjouI developed this little project as a way to reduce one of the main source of flood risks, which is uncertainties and their sources on speed of organization responsiveness in supplying the main ingredient of life, which is water. Flood has a known mechanism (see previous windows for those who are late on the helpdesk virtual discussion group) still it is an nearly unpredictable event that can occur everywhere on earth at anytime (with some places on earth more reachable than others and also more surveyed). Various risks are various issues (preparedness, transport, communications, refugees,...) I found relevant to use a drone to drop 2 oz pocket water purifier in the worse flood case scenario, which the hurricane season in order to reduce lead-time between effective flood arrival time and the first drop of fresh water available to people. So, in Water Aero Emergency Relief (the WAER single project, note to be completed the portofolio project is about ensuring that people are not drowning during flood, it is about all means to give ctizens dry feet in their local environment in order to avoid multi-risks (looting, violence, ...).sO WITH INCREASE OF FLOOD PREDICTION AND ORGANISATION RESPONSIVENESS WAER project access to water keeps the project throughput time balanced. For example if increase of lead-time is inefficient, because we are not sure that the project would be right, instead of bad planning and lack of coordination -for instance between emergency planners and disaster managers, I have a dedicated team for flood figthing with a drone and plenty water purifiers to be dropped over the flood community at risk of water poisoning (it is like a team of fire firer dedicated to fire fighting with their red lorry, with a ladder and water pumps , instead with floodfighter the ladder would be a drone launcher pad. (Of course, this mean that at local level, integrated in the community, there are the dry feet items and dedicated flood fighters-but I think these resource allocation can be predicted in country/municipality budget and with minimalistic planning...
RISK ASSESMENT
Wed, 08/04/2010 - 20:49 — GS RadjouAbout the helpdesk and the virtual discussion group. I tried to communicate a bit more as a kind of communication project manager. As it was my first time on the WMO/GWP IFR HelpDesk. It was not so much easy to write on the website. I felt, I was making it, as I was writing on a piece of paper. (For those, who do not see the difference, there is a laboratory exposition at François Mitterand French National library).A distinction between light emission and direct reading... (SEE THEIR WEBSITE). Also, how do you put more links (I put some like my best organization ITDG, making affordable disaster management and embankement, but behind the IFM Flood management HelpDESK, there are very qualified teams with people dedicated and appropriate technologies and all that would have a great impacts on flood risk reductions (keep consulting the IFM helpDesk for solving systeme to issues and the sources of uncertainties). I did not realize how many users read, these few windows, perhaps 10, 100, 1000...Anyway, Thanks to WMO Technician Joachim and Dyamashita, if the 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier has been one of the topic of IFM VIRTUAL DISCUSSION GROUP. I think this handy tool is not a gadget but a real use, WHEN YOU HAVE NOTHING TO DRINK YOU STILL GET THE 2 OZ POCKET WATER PURIFIER TO DRINK. I liked also, the spate from Yemen or Pakistan, still all these means (technical, cultural, humans and agreements and individual choices are not enough. They need to be combined on land, sea and air...To fight flood disaster.
Thanks also, to a business representative who encouraged to write on the risk analysis. THERE is no difference between these risks, wharever business it is...Last, thanks Hydrology Director I met in SIWI last year. Big challenge like flood needs giant man, he is one of them to get these flood calamities down AND ALSO RATP (AUTONOMOUS NETWORK OF PARISIAN TRANSPORT) and the french underground), where I could catch 15 TO 30 minutes-at Gare de Lyon station on-line connection is free. WORST FIGHTING AGAINST FLOOD RISK, GREATEST CHALLENGE FOR TOMORROW WORLD TO INCREASE USER RESILIENCE...
RISKS AND RETURNS
Tue, 08/03/2010 - 20:35 — GS RadjouRisk is not just about uncertainties, it is also about returnson these investment. How much do you expect? MYSELF I USED TO WORK FOR ITDG (Intermediate Technology Development Group, www.ITDG.ORG, in their philosophy of development, entrepreneurshiph initiative would return 10% for the organization. All organisations (firms, charities,...) need to make a profit or to develop to survive as a business and financially, this is promoting good business and activities and end users are happy....
INVENTORY RISK
Mon, 08/02/2010 - 21:53 — GS RadjouForecasting is just about assessement of future requirement to satisfy customer needs un a commitement of the organizations to get the resources for the allocations to people needs. So, what happens if the forecast is wrong or people needs have changed because the forecasted event changed. In principle, the organizations -an individual, a firm, a household, the government, NGOs- they are left with lots of inventories in goods.Inventories can cost lots of money to the organizations. Forcasting (short, medium , long range forcast looks good if the predicted event can materialize in order to rationalize investment and cut an inventory risks. Also, it helps planner.
Once, I WAS ON MY WAY TO THE TOP OF MOUNT KENYA (5000 METERS FOR ELEVATION, noneless to say I WAS NEARLY NAKED to get to that top (Mount Lenana), I WISH I HAD ONE OF THOSE VERY VERY SHORT RANGE FORECAST CALLED NOWCASTING (a forecast 30 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR BEFORE THE EVENT) to tell me, how to plan and how to organize. As soon as I HAD LEFT THE REFUGE -guess station- I GOT CAUGHT IN A MOUNTAIN FLASH FLOOD ON THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES. My gentle walk on a dirty track turned to be a dry river bed before the inundation. I WAS HALF BURRIED UNDER A STRONG RIVER FLOW, I was attempting to slow my descent by hanging branches, once I STARTED TO BECOME MAD and looking for signs like smoke from down the mountain to see if there was no smoke coming from a house, so I could move forward perhaps, perhaps, half an hour or one the flood has stopped. Good!....
FLOOD RISKS
Sun, 08/01/2010 - 19:54 — GS RadjouYOU MAY CONSULT WWW.IFRC.ORG FOR NEWS ABOUT FLOOD RECENT DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN AND ASIA. THEY NEED WATER, FOOD AND SHELTER...SEE INERNATIONAL FEDERATION RED CROSS/RED CRESCENT WEBSITE.
FLOOD DETECTORS
Fri, 07/30/2010 - 21:37 — GS RadjouIn case you are making project management on these flood risk reduction goal oriented project, I think one stage of managing flood uncertainties , it is the phase before the flood predicted arrival time. A good early warning system (ews) needs to inform that the water hazard is on your way home (in the flood prone region) and also, take the threat seriously in order you to make some preparadness on time. In France, a ministre suggested some houses at risk to equip with safety exit, and son...still you need to be energically warned during a pre alert phase. In Project "waer", I found very convenient the use of sensors. These are intermediate ones -I mean not gauging manually or wth a technology like GPS or gamma rays, but simply an elevation turning wheel or a floating buoy. These technologies like cyclocomputeur on a bicycle, would tells various parameters: speed, distance and time. INFORMATIONS communicated locally could warn village community with sirens and futher remote meaningfull signal could be conveyed with short or long distance RFID,...
DARCY LAW
Fri, 07/30/2010 - 13:27 — GS RadjouFlood risks are linked to soil permeability to water. DARCY LAW tells Q (Flow) = k (permeability) x s (section of the land) x H (depth of the soil, including the water on the surface) / h (thickness of the soil only). Units for flows are cm3 / hour. k permeability coefficient is in cm / hour. S is in cm2. FOR sandy soils k= 10 cm/hour or limestone k= 20 cm / hour. Some soils are not transferring water k= 0.0000..01. These low permeability soils are the flood uncertainties. We have seen in previous window, what would be these factors -sources- of uncertainties. I recall some of them: Global warming -more rainfalls influence H-, cutting trees-, urbanization, impervious surfaces, ...also, ageing waste water treatment .EITHER K IS VERY SMALL OR OTHER PARAMETERS induce a wetling front in the soil that does not allow water infiltrations to join aquifer soils. Thus, water flows stayed stagnant at subsurface and create flood zones where houses can be located THERE AND PEOPLES AND PROPERTIES ARE AT RISK...If there are slopes -soils are not flat speeds of the flood create more damages with kinetic energies and velocity...
KISS THE UNCERTAINTIES
Wed, 07/28/2010 - 21:31 — GS RadjouKeep the project as simple as possible. Chapman and Ward said KEEP IT SIMPLE SYSTEMATICALLY (KISS). For example you want to buy food. You have an order (deliverable). YOU know how to get to the store, between place (a) -where you stay- to place (b) -where the store is located- You need to be on time for shopping -because the store close for lunchtime. A good estimate tells you need HALF AN HOUR TO MAKE YOUR SHOPPING. This is the TIME DEDICATED FOR THE trip distance. So, this project: buying food in the supermarket is basic. It takes into account 2 parameters: distance and time. A math model is distance = your speed x (30 minutes).
Usually, it is the way risk analysts are processng, they use basic model to estimate needs and the resource to allocate for the shopping.It iss simple as that. Using models with one or two parameters makes the the analyst job simple systematically and helps to predict (FORECAST)
You may not be alone on your journey to the store. You may find hazards on your road map. For example your last coins are lost in a soft drink dispenser machine. The complaint hotline is out of order. ALSO, other uncertainties like buying junk food in the street. They may be more expensive, not appropriate and get food or water poisoning....ETC.
So, at the end of the day you may need more time, to go faster -take a cab- have additional monies -like savings-. ALL THESE PRECAUTIONARY MEASURES are to cover your resource losses. In mitigating these uncertainties, you may need to think to leave your house earlier 30 + ADDITIONAL TIME, or think about ALTERNATIVES, like taking the bus or the underground nstead of walking. Perhaps, you need more money to cover the money lost in the soft drink machine all these uncertainties and variabilities are due to the fact that modelling is the pocess of simulating the business and its environment. The real worl is much harder to predict(not always in hard currency... The project owner normally is in charge to assess these risk (and will not tell in most case to KEEP IT SIMPLE SYSTEMATICALLY (kiss).
APPLIED THESE PRINCIPLES (KISS AND LOOKING FOR SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES), it became clear to me in project WAER , I had to model the Emergency Water Supply taking into account speed of process to match ...
TSUKUBA FLOOD MANAGEMENT NEXT MEETING 27-29/09/11 -JAPAN
Tue, 07/27/2010 - 22:16 — GS RadjouI hope you all get this one on your agenda for this conference, which promise ever the way one manage floods - water hazards- Great place to be for all these water stakeholders. Water is 98 % of our planet (Eluard used to say Earth is blue like an orange. We are living in and on a surrealistic planet where only 2% of this water is fresh water. This gives certain limits to our pragmatism when we want to improve our human conditions. 1/3 to 2/5 of disasters (atmospheric, seismic, telluric,...) lead to a flood and this is impacting country GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP). If adding to these figures that 80% of diseases come from water, most of the 1.5 billion who lack of water sanitation and hygiene, 800 millions with no safe water, 500 millions small farmers living on land and flood plains that provide food and revenues for 2 billions, 1 billion living with $1.25 per day, EVERY 30 SECONDS A MOTHER IS MOURNING HIS/HER CHILD BECAUSE OF NASTY WATER, and all these stakeholders, that are concerned with dams, river discharges, economical development with water Reuse, Recharge and Restore (3 R MANAGEMENT), also flash flooding and spate, which is to my viewpoint one best example of flood intelligence and sustainability like in Paskistan and Yemen, stakeholders inerested also with preservation and protection of the biodiversity, choices of dams, decommissioning dams, green urbanism and dry feet zone or building artificial islands, piloti houses or floating cities,...WITH SUCH PROGRAM IN MIND, WITH ALL THESE STAKEHOLDERS. YOU NEED TO BOOK NOW OR PREPARE SERIOUSLY. If not there is a risk of missing the show or the event may take place on the olympic stadium. One more reason you should come in the country of the empire of the rising sun, of course for the cultural changes, but the first time ever in flood solving issues there will be an effective changes from defence to management -it is never to lateand catch up. No need to know old theories if you are late on the topic of flood occurence, or a new entry who is learning from scratch. My viewpoint the clue of THE FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN TSUKUBA IN 27-29/09/2011 IN JAPAN will be flood risk reduction is not, it is a marketing term, flood risk reduction is UNCERTAINTY MANAGEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY SOURCES, opportunity is a positive risk as much valuable as negative risks. My viewpoint it is the base of the new philosophy of flood risk reduction, of course with technology and culture changes to the water behavior, risk culture and adaptation strategies. I hope my 2 oz Pocket Water Purifier AND its vector the drone UAV for fresh waters suppliers during flood will be also on display- if not as for it! Be ready, be on your starting blocks from now-if not we will have to re make it again. DON'T MISS IT TSUKUBA 27-29/09/2010 FLOOD MANAGEMENT IN JAPAN.
PROJECT BROKERAGE
Mon, 07/26/2010 - 21:49 — GS RadjouSome organizations want a collaborative approach between emergency planners and disaster manager. Their moto is detailed planning. They MAY BE RIGHT. I am not so sure. Perhaps, they should plan enough to cover risks and perhaps it should be a minimalistic planning but with resources to be enough flexible to solve water hazard during the year calendar, daily and during 24 HOURS. Do we know where the next weather and hydrology event will be. Is it predictable and how much resource reserve do we have? Not easy to answer. MYSELF, in WAER (Water Aero Emergency Relief), I had the idea to drop 2 Oz Pocket Water Purifiers in drone/UAV non stopped flights over inundated region. My viewpoint, there is little alternative to fresh water supply during a flood and I BELIEVE an organization like ICDO (EXTENDED ORGANIZATION) or dedicated floodfighters (smilar to firefighters) could play this role if enacted in the community. Of course, water purifier drops, on-line sales of te item and parcel delivery or shopping for one in the local store can go with water waste treatment, environmental engineering and the green urbanism. I think the dedication of one team with light flexible planning (like firefighter for flood) will remove much incetainties and thus criticism to emergency planning. Also, good planning is effective with effective communication. When I designed the fresh water supplies, during the gas phase, I worked with 3 multinational business models FROM TODAY. AIR (Aero Inflight Retail is french), World a fashion business apparatel producing on forecasted supply and demand from their dykes, is Japanese) and US AIR FORCE Rand Project, which is a strategy access to country bases and flight routes. They were as valuable models chinese, or mexican to complete, but I FOUND that all these multinationales had solved the issue requirement of forecast, lead-time reduction, minimum planning, minimalistic replesnishment policy of their inventories and flexibility strategy ...that I have to combine all these organizations to make WAER/ THE FULL PROJECT IS MISSION ORGANIZED AND HYBRID because of the alliance of flood sensors,manual handling and forecast without technology. I think another prowesse of this project to reduce uncertainties is the rapid activation of drones during the crucial period of the atmospheric and hydrology event.
I AM A NEW MEMBER OF WEF
Sat, 07/24/2010 - 22:01 — GS RadjouThank! Water Environmental Federation, which is a 36,000 members, which headquarters is based in Aexandria (Virginia, USA) enrolled me for the global e-partnership. AS THEY SAID information given to me is to improve my expertise. So, do not hesitate to contact me for any help at: georges_radjou_wb@hotmail.com
WATER ENGINEERING, INFRASTRUCTURE, WASTE waster treatment and others are their specialities. The distinction with TENANTS of believers who think that all sources of water are from the rains -and they are right- but, if I consider what I SAID on a previous window about frozen water because of water pollutions due o hazards and costs of cleaning waters we need another sources, which is denser (more dirts) , that is used water.(this one is on earth at soil surface, underground and in the sea.
AT THE SAME TIME
I think I may be able to carry regularly my communication on risk analysis and management as suggested/queried by a representative of the worldwide business community.(NOTE: until now I DID NOT make a distinction between these 2)
I hope give me more ease to make this kind of work for those who are interested also, there are possibilies (recommended to contact WMO AND its hydrology division Director Mr Avinash Tyagy and brillant team anr supports -as I CAN SEE it through their e-commerce and dealing on the ground with practical engineering flood solving systems or training of teams -and team of teams- I think it is stille best way to empower people. See their homepage for more details on flood issue sttings and practical information to apply for assistance. There are also various coceptual debate and meeting that you may be able to join (I think one big milestone for flood development and management is schedule from 2011, second semestre in Japan. don't miss it. There has been some changes fo( the first time from the flood defence, the organization would moves to flood management....and this would be a real progress.
WATER IS FROZEN TO FIND RISK/UNCERTAINTY
Fri, 07/23/2010 - 21:29 — GS RadjouIt is not frozen in the way that it is icy and cold and you need to warm it to drink it. IT is likely if it is contaminated you need to screen -filter and remove - unwanted materials, buffer the chemicals and also boil it (3' at 100 DEGREES CELSIUS) to kill the germs. SOMETIMES it is said the water is sick , I THINK it is to express the human face of water and properties similar to humans when not fitted well.
If I believe Yann ARTHUS (and author scientists), it is looking like water came on earth planet at a time of asteroids full with ice water were crushing on the planet.
Since that time, Jean MARGAT (iternational hydrologist) said that the quantity (volume) of water was determined (I believe also because the asteroids stopped to collide with the earth less and less according to other geographer like MEUR).
WHAT IS THE ISSUE--> RISK --> UNCERTAINTIES--> SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTIES
With few people on earth and less human activities, water used to ensure it own self cleaning during the water cycle. Now population increase and human activity (6 Billions now, and soon 9 BILLIONS) water is heavily contaminated by hazards from human activities. Water does not have time to self clean it-self during the life cycle. It is also expensive to clean water as men do through the waste water treatment and regeneration.
Conclusion: the more we use water , the more we are polluting it, and in turn we are likely to be contaminated, particularly in countries were sanitation and hygiene is poor for various reasons (rational or systemic). The water is frozen because its quantity has not changed since ancient times but there are more polluted water (with less capability to clean that water) , the polluted water is not available and being unused for human consumption or activities , it becomes FROZEN.
What are the solutions: technical, polical, ...DECIDING ABOUT the future of water as a sustainable source is a decision of all stakeholders in the framework of IWRM (INTEGRATED WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT and its subset for flood risks (IFRM).
Risk analysis and Hazards
Thu, 07/22/2010 - 16:19 — GS RadjouRisk of various systems (war, naturel disaster, natural hazards, diseases....) have a common point, they all lead frequently to issues with:
-information and communication,
-transport,
-preparedness (psychological and physical),
-displacement of population and refugee movement,
-also, gender and equality issues
Risk of various systems (disaster) => human geography and physical geography.
Hazards: Physical (nuclear waste,...), chemical (sanitizer for water,...) and biological (salmonella,...). Hazard Analysis Critical Control Points can reduce them. If not, these sources are real danger for human lives. For instance, nuclear waste are put under water in swimming pools, sanitizer are store in bottle with correct labelling and stock away from water reservoir, and salmolla is removed with good hygiene like washing hand with soapy hot water.
HACCP
Wed, 07/21/2010 - 20:33 — GS RadjouHazard Analysis Critical Control Points . The US WENT ON the moon AND returned with bags full of technology falls, which one is the HACCP. The method of looking for risks was successfull, so it became popular amongst several industries. It is benchmarking the practice of US FDA -Federal Drug Administration- Today, it is largely applied in the hospitality industry. If, you buy a glass of beer in a pub, the quality of your beer is ruled buy the food law. Same rules apply for water.
I think CHECKING and monitoring crtical safety points and steps in the process of making a glass beer or drinking water is better than just keeping the drinks cold or boiling the water to ensure that it is fit for human consumption. IT is working well if it is tea or eventually hot water under the heat of the sunny Sahara if you do not have any cooler.
Anyway, for Asia, my viewpoint is that if upgrading water behavior is important, I THINK it is not enough, only a culture change to water uses can improve the water quality. A good way would be to use HACCP in a systematic way at crucial point of the water supply. These critical points are these sources and uncertainties, if no quality controls are made at that step, there is a risk that no further treatment of the glass of water can reduce the risk of drinking contaminated water. nobody wants this. The water infrstructure tells how bad your water can be. While the control tells how good was the water you drink.
PLANNING RISK
Tue, 07/20/2010 - 21:21 — GS RadjouWhen I designed WAER (Water Aero Emergency Relief) in 2008 there was to basic principles the flood risk reduction (Porto folio management) I MAY share tools with IFR (like buoys, GPS, internet...) but the most innovative part of it (it is the delivery of the flood and health plan) -single project- What do organizations made usually after sources of water supplies have been disrupted . EITHER primary or secondary. USUALLY nothing!Water trucking is disabled. I THINK it is bad when considering that deathtoll rises in the aftermath of the disaster. It is because people are thirsty-nobody can stay more than 3 Days without drinking, so, they cannot refrain and drink contaminated water. I found interesting to drop 2 oz Pocket Water Purifiers because SIWI FOUND THE IDEA ORIGINAL , but the water purifier is a health (and flood) plan (-ref: WHO). the drop is supposed to be with drones (UAVs) for the project simultion (because drones can fly in hurricanes), however any microlights can do it with a fair weather aswell as speedboats .Also, it would be better to have the item before. the advantage of the drop is the increase of floods and we don't know where would be the next disaster with a flood. So, no amount of planning would tell where to help, when, how, what,....so THE response of a flood organization like firefighters as to energic (speed matter)- so, added to WMO INCREASE leadtimes for forecast, I Think it is also good to reduce leadtimes of responsiveness with a swift flood unit (rescuer). Interesting point with that it is perhaps beyond IFR helpdesk, but still ultimately , the goal is to facilitate post recovery operation by making the water purifier affordable during the threat itself (better before) AFTER, I Think it is already too late -except in some favourable cases.
SPORT AND PREPAREDNESS
Tue, 07/20/2010 - 18:53 — GS RadjouOne used to say black people does not know how to swim. It is explain by the fact that they body weight is too dense -heavy- because of the body muscle and in the water they tend more to deep than too float (compare to their colleagues from white classes).
They also, don't have enough swimming pools and swimming educations and so on....All these reasons are perhaps not valid. Myself, I was a bad swimmer until I get caught with various experience wworking or leasuring in islands (Polynesia, Seychelles, Cyprus...). I used to bath daily (and fishing, also). This makes me very confident with the sea tide and storms and typhoons that I could swimm when nobody was fishing or swimming....Leaving in flood zone regions, you need a kind of additonal preparadness that just a day working. You need to find, safety roots also and put some spare water and food. I think, if more swimmers are in swimming pools. The best that knows their countries are the people themselves. perhaps they need to be more aware and organized and prepared. Up to us to give them more helps.
GENDER EQUALITY SPORT(GES)
Sun, 07/18/2010 - 21:38 — GS RadjouFacing a water hazard (FLOOD) I THINK women are more vulnerable than men. Both they are, but because women traditionaly are looking after kids, they need a futher protection in the safety of a good house that can stand the event. Often, when I Watch the TV I SEE more disasters (sources of uncertainty and risk) coming from the status of housing than the flood severity itself. Take for instance the urbanism code. It says everything and nothing. I explain, if it is said to put good quality stone and iron and because the good materials are too far from where you build the house and you need it now -nearly- you are confrontate with the builder paradox -TIME SPEED QUALITY AND THESE REQUIREMENTS. YOU cannot do all together. you need to get help froman architect or/and an engineer. UN-habitat can help to strenghthen the house. MYSELF AS A PROJECT MANAGER I use modular scaffolds, this quick fix allow the house to stand for a while the encounter with the change of the environment. So, it avoid the house scrambling/scrambled. It is temporary. Some companies preferred to use more permanent infrastructure (See WMO/GWP or this desk Flood analysis and management division to get a hand on your FLOOD SAFETY PLANNING...
RATIONAL VERSUS SYSTEMIC
Sat, 07/17/2010 - 22:35 — GS RadjouI think in flood risk management and /or ANLYSIS it has to be both.
There was a great change in the risk management when Galileo said the universe was geocentric. That creative idea was against Aristote rationality- I SUPPOSE. Analyse is just about breaking systems in small portion in order to study them. ONE fundamental distinction with systemic is the belief that the rules applying on these small part would be the same for the whole system the sum up of these parts and their rules. SYSTEMIC TAKES into account the global dimension of a system and its interaction with the environ. There is no causal link between a source of an issue and how it is impacting. Instead between a-->B YOU HAVE a<=>B, wich is an interaction between a and B. I think risk reduction and uncertainty management or risk analyst has to think the natural world as a complex world (but not complicated) and KISS it! (To take Chapman and Ward formula). KISS means design a process or model that express the researcher project goal orientation
(not academic LIKE PMBOK and non governmental approved like PRINCE 2) but project goal orientate (I think it is systemic) and not 100% based on evidence based or probes (I think it rationality). KISS the model KEEP IT SIMPLY SIMPLE (KISS from Chapman AND Ward). A model like the gravity law is link to the inverse of the squared root distance (r)between 2 bodes and in relationship with the direct product of their masses (multiply by M (BIG MASS) and m (small mass). F (attraction force would be express by)=Mm/SQUARE ROOT of (r). The model to study the attraction between the earth (big mass M) and an apple (small mass m) at distance r was a dedication of NEWTON from empirical evidence. LATER to express the reality of the universe NEWTON MAY HAVE CONSIDERED A NEW RELATIONSHIP....
LINK BETWEEN ISSUE MANAGEMENT AND UNCERTAINTIES / RISKS
Thu, 07/15/2010 - 22:13 — GS Radjoutake for instance flood as an issue or health during the disaster . One needs to monitor issues and their parameters. In order to make this you need to select indicators to capture the context and focus on the process. Indicators are like riding a bike or leading a speed boat, organization (individuals, businesses, households, ngos and governments), they will head where their eyes are looking. (Just try it). It is not easy to find who is who, who takes decision , when do you need an embankement and so on. For INSTANCE, take early warning system (EWS) with the satellite detection 26 Dec. 2004 tsunamy in south east asia told stakeholders, there was a missing link between EWS and conveying meaningfull information to people. In this way, we have failed but we learned to adapt to new conditions and change. Also, problem issue with physical geography, a country like Bangladesh can claim that data is collected on the status of the weather and hydrology for treatment and preparadness lead-times are too long for a so small country, again one need to adapt with local based network like flood monitoring stations. WITH WMO global network of assets an processes each and every country organizations adapt to reduce liabilities from flood to the best of their knowledge and means. This makes an hybrid flood division to manage issues and reduce risks.
FLOOD RISK
Wed, 07/14/2010 - 20:08 — GS RadjouFor instance manage issues and the uncertainties or their sources.what are the flood risks?
Positive risks: look at the spate engineering works during flash floods in Pakistan or Yemen for water reuse, retention and recharge. Not too bad, isn't ?
Negative risks: have you ever seen a flood. First impressions are what you see from media attentions or your real encounter:
-the forecat and the expected heavy rains,
-the river swell with congested unwanted materials like soils, urban rubbished and various sediments,
-the speed of the flows and the water heights drive river flows out of the river bed course to the inundated flood zones. There are some conditions in favour of river flooding: sediments (too much loaded), flat surfaces (over 20% too much), impervious surfaces (with densely urbanized cities), ageing waste treatment pipes (cannot drain excess of street rubbishes, sediments, cars, trees and so on),ALSO cutting trees without replacing them or no control drainage policy or reservoirs to control peaks of discharges from the river. Joseph Holden (the geographer) talks about th wetting front of the soil to explain that the soil is saturated and can soak water like a sponge to a limit. Professor J. A. Allan talks about the influence of the nature and the soil structure. So, with the flood water rises and inundates the land with speed and as the land is impervious. It starts to fill the bottom of the house, underground , basement of all infrastructure, then comes up in the street to fill vacuities like open spaces, roads, parks. So, if you are driving on the road and did not pay attention to flood (or the forecast) you may end up in a car crash or leaving the road unable to drive (loosing control); you will see also people panicking, trying to find an exit, perhaps on the roof of the crumbling....
TIME BUFFER
Tue, 07/13/2010 - 20:53 — GS RadjouDifference between the economical order quantity buffer and the time buffer. I mean it is like making breakfast. When do you put coffee on or toasts on or eggs on , and so on to get a full satisfactory breakfast. One needs to manage various time to cook, toast, warm up and serve. This time needs to be assessed carefully in order to avoid to drink cold coffee with burnt toasts...
It is the same buffer for hazardous event. All needs to be perfect: time for predictions, time to start to warn of the risk, start to initiate the preparadness -standby- and tim to activate the rescue. Times from different teams , organizations,..., need to be synchronized and match times for responsivenes and leadtimes in order to have a successfull operation.
Take for instance, arriving late at the airport and the uncertainty would increase the cost of the relief. It would be good to have estimations about times to take off and is it possible to delay the aircraft, what would be the risk on operation, peple at risk. Another way, if i need 20 minutes to go to the airport with the resources, when the weather is fairly good, when it is bad, perhaps it is better for me to double this time: make it 20 + 20 = 40 minutes.
BIOMIMIC AND ITKI
Mon, 07/12/2010 - 22:24 — GS RadjouBIOMIMIC IS PROMOTED BY GREENBIZZ ONLINE
Greenbizz is recommending a new on-line master study accredited for environmental friendly development. There is so much to learn from the natural environment. New green and traditional businesses should learn from the natural engineering in term of designing, innovation and new thinking to leverage their organizations. These biomimics studies give future students to a world of biotechnology where technologies, efficiencies, economy of scales, biosecurity, production with savings are paramount in a tomorrow scarcity...
INTERNATIONAL TRADITIONAL TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE
ITKI is opening its doors for new performances in term of challenging development with ancestor technology that can be gathered in the centre in Florence (Tuscany). UNESCO sponsors ITKI. (see detailed article in NEWSPAPER LE MONDE 12 JULY 2010.
Honestly, I believe these ancestor knowledge would bring new solving issues for flood risk reductions and also in term of opportunities.
BOTH initiatives are also good ways to fight poverty by reconnecting people with their concerns of life.